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Local covid-19 data
Yesterday the Arizona Daily Star ran an article on covid-19, saying that its incidence increased ten days after Governor Ducey lifted the order closing non-essential businesses. Ten days was chosen, the article said, because that was the accepted interval between exposure and the development of symptoms. (They were a little mistaken: it's more like five days average for symptoms to develop, plus five days average for testing results to be posted. But ten days is a good interval.
I responded with a letter to the editor, which I doubt they will publish, pointing out that by the same standard the demonstration/riot downtown on May 31 had a much worse effect. Which is just commonsense. Which is more likely to pass a respiratory virus, having your hair cut by a barber wearing a mask, or standing shoulder-to-shoulder for hours in a crowd of chanting and shouting people?
Here are my figures, taken from the Arizona Dep't of Health Services website. I take the numbers and rate of daily increase for one day before and after the tenth day:
Business reopening, May 16
May 29: 56 new cases, 2.6% increase
May 30: 78 " " 3.4%
May 31: 14 " " 0.5%
Demonstrations/riot, May 31
June 9 189 new cases, 6% increase
June 10 129 " " 4%
June 11 149 " " 4%
2 Comments | Leave a comment
Realistically, any post reopening analysis of cases has to ask if testing has increased. Otherwise, we may just be measuring that when we test more we find more cases.
Although my white privilege prevents me from having the capacity to understand why, I believe that both tracking this data and making this comparison is completely racist and you should self cancel since the mob is busy elsewhere.