Wishful dreaming from The New Republic

Truly tragic if "Gun ownership is declining—from half of households in the 1970s to a third today." Really? They obviously wish it were so, but how could they possibly know? It seems unlikely in view of the massive gun buying since the 2008 election.

Wishful thinking is right! If anybody is in trouble it's Manchin and other treasonous Democrats. The real tragedy is having to read through that lame and boring article - that the best they've got?

I saw this article and skimmed it. I agree that it's wishful thinking. The death of the NRA has been predicted many times in the past.

I just don't see evidence of a change in public opinion toward gun control. In fact, it's a sign of strong pro-gun public opinion that after the Newtown school shooting, and with a staunch anti-gun and (semi)popular president, no federal gun control law was passed. And while some states passed gun control laws, just as many passed pro-gun laws at the same time.

Personally, though I have no evidence to back this up, I think that the exposure of the wider public to firearms through many TV shows (Top Shot, Pawn Stars, etc.) has led to a more gun friendly America. These shows weren't on in the '90s and the last major push for federal gun control.

For many years I believe that gun owners don't answer surveys, and when they do they LIE about owning guns.

That gun owning has dropped to about a third of households is based on surveys. They never seem to tell you how many refused the survey. And nobody would lie to the survey takers would they?

Ninety percent support more gun control? Yeah, right. That's why four Colorado lawmakers are facing recall efforts for passing gun control -- because so many of their constituents support those new laws. I suppose that's why my US Senator, Claire McCaskill's phone always went to voice mail, voice mail which was full. That's why the Speaker of the Colorado Senate advised his fellow Senators to ignore their constituents and vote for more gun control. And that's why the NRA has grown to a record high membership of over 5 million.

The word from law school regarding this article was "precatory".

Funny how in that long diatribe of the waning of the NRA, not one mention of DC v Heller or of McDonald v Chicago!

Phone surveys get a very small response - people that are willing to actually answer. Many just refuse so to a certain extent there is a self selection bias going on. And yes gun owners lie to certain questions.
The wording of a question is particularly important but also difficult. I can believe that 90% want better nics checks because they might those with mental illness need to be added in. WE all recognize that that might keep some violent people from obtaining a firearm.
They survey people may aggregate several questions into one so the numbers of responses is higher.
Think the mental illness issue. If that is a separate question which many answer positively and it is combined with others that get little positive response the combined question tallies to their 90%.

The ground truth is that large numbers of people that I have known for years are now buying Rifles and shotguns for the first time. An even larger number are buying handguns. Why? They were always pro-gun but have said they are going to buy before they can't. They will tell me but they won't tell surveys or people they do not know well.