Post election prospects

"The Dems have been blocking confirmations for years, with the result that something like a third of all lower court slots are open."

Good thing we'll finally have one party in charge of everything ... otherwise in another term we'd have no judges left in the courts at all. *rolleyes*

First litmus test will be Roe v Wade then 2A

The House has HR 6257 Assualt Weapons ban and Magazine Capacity limits waiting for the next DEM President to take office. Buy your AR or AK today and pick up those extra mags while you can.

I think you're reaching if you think that the popular vote is even that close. The smallest currently/recently fielded poll was +2.1 (TIPP) and the largest at +13 (CBS). Most polls are 5-7 points right now. Leaners are now pretty much hardened up. Of the leaners left, McCain would have to get better than 70% to get a point or two of swing. I suspect you should buy some new magazines. I Just did.

Noops, it ain't over till it's it's over. A poll I saw 10-31 said that one out of seven voters goes into the booth able to change their mind at the last minute.

Two words: Bradley Effect.

Rivrdog: I hope you're right. I don't really see the Bradley effect working here. The Bradley Effect in itself is a little mystical. Post election, statisticians found that the original Bradley Effect wasn't as big as people played at the time, and we're some number of years on.

As for the last minute voters, that's what I addressed in my previous post. Obama has probably a 5-7 point lead. Getting 70-75% of those last minute undecided-voters would only give McCain 1-2% national boost. And that doesn't really account for the even more favorable electoral map by state.

So while I hope you're right on the last minute voters, I don't see it. I also hope that this country has gotten better on race. I personally think it would be a shame to find out in two weeks that Obama lost because of the Bradley effect. It would basically say to me that race is more important than substance. I'm no fan of Obama, and maybe I'm old-school and naive, but I'd like to see us win on substance. I'm very pro-second amendment, and pretty conservative. But I don't believe that the ends always justifies the means.

It's not just the judicial appointments we have to worry about, it's the BATF/FBI/DOJ heads, Federal Prosecutors, and all the miscellaneous lower down appointments that an Obama administration would get to make.
Think the BATFE is a PITA now? Wait until an Obama beholden director gets entrenched, and has a chance to start enforcing is or her own pet policies on internal promotion, and external policies concerning licensing and inspections...
Like Clinton before him, Obama will be making things tough for decades to come after his term is up.

Don't be too sure that they will try
to pass their worthless gun ban.

They have had 2 years to try and re-enact
it and haven't.

Plus they lost the House of Representives
for 12 years......after holding it for FORTY
(1954-1994).

And they HATE being out of power and being
the minority party.

Marc

You can absolutely BET on an assault weapons ban before summer.

Reid and Pelosi will have the votes and Obama will sign it.

The Dems won't remember 1996, and if they do, they'll still think they're fireproof this time.

They may be right.

Who says that the Dems will have to take the fallout from banning guns?

Nah, they'll do it the easy way.

EIther they'll just make it impossible to buy new guns and ammo (through BATF/EPA regulation and new taxation), or they'll add a few lines of code to the Pelosi/Clinton National Health Service Law that make ownership of firearms a "risk behavior" and drop the owner and his family waaaaay down the priority list for health services.

If Obama wins, I predict an AWB in the first six months. Some say they learned their lesson in '94. But what lesson is that? I'm guessing they realize it's stupid to do just before an election, so instead they'll do it early on in hopes people will cool down in two or four years. They might even think by giving us free health care and unicorns or whatever that we won't be mad any more.

That said, I don't think an Obama win is certain. All of the polls are weighted for the rush of new Democratic voter registrations, right? But how many of those are fake? Isn't it over a million now?

In fact, I think the point of ACORN's scam wasn't as much to stuff ballot boxes as it was to skew pre-election polling in order to crush the opposition's spirits.

So, yea, if anyone hasn't voted yet by the time they read this comment, and there's still time to vote, don't give up yet.

The first to fall will be the .50BMG. That will be a Class III within the first 100 days.

I also expect a limit on the number of firearms you can own before you have to register as an "armory".

Heller will die from a thousand cuts.
Incorporation will never receive cert.
Ammunition will no longer be available through the mail services.
The NICS will keep data forever.
The BATFE will get a 50% increase in funding with the next budget.
The UN will pass a Small Arms treaty with the support of the U.S.

You just gotta use your imagination and nibble around the edges a little bit...

The Democrats want to lose the House for another 12 years?

And with the Super Liberal Obama Express
and then an AW ban they will lose it.

About 60% of you were so sure it was going to happen in 2007 after the 2006 election lol.

It didn't.

Noops: don't forget the posited "reverse Bradley" effect, where people who aren't racist decide for other reasons to not vote for a black candidate, but lie about that to pollsters because they don't want to be seen as racist. Or just refuse to respond to polls.

Also, one thing we did see in the primaries this year were exit polls overstating Obama support. Besides a possible Bradley effect of some sort, it was theorized that the Obama voters were more enthusiastic and therefore more likely to fill out a survey form.

(So don't believe the MSM when they hint during the day it's going to be a good election for Obama, their data might be wrong.)

illspirit: other things to factor into the ACORN false registrations:

They act like a denial-of-service attack (DoS, most often seen as DDoS for the distributed version) on the people responsible for keeping the voter rolls clean, which allow more false registrations to survive to election day.

And then you have the ulta-partisan Ohio Secretary of State who seems to be doing everything she can to allow this registration fraud to throw the state to Obama; an exceptional case, but it could throw the entire election if it's close.

- Harold

I'd expect at the outset a "close the gun show loophole" push

Others have mentioned it--but I expect confiscatory tax/regulation on ammo, probably the AWBan, and the .50BMG will be outlawed.

Every time they bring up gun control we need to write letters to the editor, etc. pointing out how they're not spending their time fixing the economy, health care, etc.

Rich only four co-sponsors in a Democratic-controlled House of 233 Democratic members
is not a large mandate.

H.R.6257
Title: To reinstate the Public Safety and Recreational Firearms Use Protection Act.
Sponsor: Rep Kirk, Mark Steven [IL-10] (introduced 6/12/2008) Cosponsors (4)
Latest Major Action: 7/28/2008 Referred to House subcommittee. Status: Referred to the Subcommittee on Crime, Terrorism, and Homeland Security.

H.R.1022
Title: To reauthorize the assault weapons ban, and for other purposes.
Sponsor: Rep McCarthy, Carolyn [NY-4] (introduced 2/13/2007) Cosponsors (67)
Latest Major Action: 3/19/2007 Referred to House subcommittee. Status: Referred to the Subcommittee on Crime, Terrorism, and Homeland Security.

Why only 67 co-sponsors if they actually
wanted to pass it?