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Economists probe question of NRA electoral power
Posted by David Hardy · 2 February 2007 06:00 PM
Dave Kopel has a study by Christopher B. Kenny, Michael McBurnett & David J. Bordua, on the question of how much NRA endorsements influence elections. (pdf file) Among other findings:
In 1994, each 10,000 NRA members in a district was associated with a 5% vote gain for the candidate NRA endorsed.
Challengers benefitted more from an endorsement than did incumbents.
An endorsement helped a Republican contender more than it helped a Democratic one.
· NRA
I said this on volokh and I'll say it again here. Those were the two best years for gun owners, driven by the backlash to the AWB.
The NRA helped focus that anger, true. But look at 98, 2000, 2002 and 2004 and tell me they had the same enormous impact. I dont think you can. Surely that data must be available by now, so why wasnt it included in the study? This is the sort of cherry-picked research that we fault the bradys for.