While it might just be possible to blame it on suddenly scared crooks, I would bet that DC hasn't actually had more than a few dozen permits actually approved since Heller.

So let's not get too anxious to credit the Heller decision with this.

It's not that we're attempting to credit the drop to a few permits, but that the hoplophobes were adamant that same change would result in the streets running with the blood of hundreds of innocent victims of gun violence, not to mention dozens of infants and toddlers who accidentally managed to shoot themselves or their playmates. Of course they've made the same predictions in every state where gun control laws have been relaxed, with similar accuracy but without the slightest evidence of any ability or willingness to learn from experience.

We in the gun rights community knew that more guns does not equal more crime. It is more criminals equal more crime. DC has been exporting criminals for sometime to PG county MD

Rah:

if they have been exporting criminals to PG county has any one looked at the crime statistics there? I would expect to see an increase starting lets say a year after the exporting started. would be interesting.

I would agree with the general proposition that correlation does not equal causation.

Having said that, do we really think that criminals are going to say: "Hmm, guns are legal in D.C., but only a couple of dozen permits have been issued since June, 2008, so I guess its safe to stay in business for now, at least until the public records indicated that a signficant majority of households in D.C. have guns in them."

Nope, I think the criminal mind rationale, shortly after the June 2008 Heller media blitz, goes more like this: "Damn, people in D.C. can have guns, I don't want to get shot. I guess I better take advantage of the Obama stimulus package and get a job."