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« 65 Demo Congressmen write AG Holder... | Main | Comment on 14th Amendment cases »

Eugene Volokh on the increase in gun sales

Posted by David Hardy · 18 March 2009 03:36 PM

He does an interesting month-by-month breakdown over several years and concludes that Obama's election and subsequent events are the most likely cause. Compared to the previous year, sales increased 3% in September, 15% in October, and 42% in November, and stayed high since.

Comments

Uh...how long did it take you to figure this out, Eugene? All you had to do was go to a gun shop on 5 or 6 November and ask "What are you doing here?" to get the facts in this case.


Posted by: doug in colorado at March 18, 2009 07:24 PM

Doug, with all due respect, your comment is snide. I realize you might be joking but it's difficult to tell.

At some level you are correct. And I've also confirmed it with anecdotal evidence ... I usually ask folks at shops or shows why they are buying (they usually include Obama in the answer).

But the bottom line is that your method of inquiry is anectotal, while Eugene's relies on quantification (ie. it's scientific). Many people claim to know "facts" about various things, but when you press them as to how they know what they know ... they usually cannot provide solid evidence.

Gene Volokh does. Perhaps that's why his work is cited by federal courts, including the Supreme Court.

Posted by: Carl in Chicago at March 19, 2009 05:51 AM

Carl, I am sorry but you are wrong. The only thing Gene Volokh showed was that firearms sales increased close to and after the election. Nothing else. He proposes that the increase is because Obama got elected but that proves nothing. Correlation is not causation.

Every one should know that gun sales are up. Volokh gave numbers to show that yes gun sales are up. But again he only shows NIC checks. Each NIC's check doesn't mean "A" gun sale. Either zero or more then one gun can be bought with 1 NIC's Check. Also many States (I believe do as Texas does)don't require a NIC's check for people with a Concealed Carry Licence. So the real number of guns sold may be and certain;ly is MUCH Higher.

I have seen bumper stickers at Gun Show that say "Obama #1 Gun Salesman". When EVERYONE is saying the same thing and NO ONE is saying anything else it stops being anecdotal evidence.
Saying Dave down at Ben's Pawn and Gun says Obama is the cause is anecdotal. Saying at 10 gun stores and 3+ large Gun Shows Obama being the cause with nobody saying anything different stops being anecdotal. I'm sorry, it is only evidence that here in Texas the buying is caused by Obama. But I doubt that anyone has heard anything different in any State.

Posted by: Dan Hamilton at March 19, 2009 09:49 AM

actually, Volokh's data seems to show there's been an ongoing month-over-month increase in gun sales since November of 2005, with scarcely a let-up in that time. (excepting only December '07, for some reason.) that's actually pretty interesting, i think.

the raw numbers he links to are also interesting. by my eyeballs we're at almost half again the monthly sales of a decade ago; peaking, now as then, in the last two months of the year. 2009 so far looks interesting in that the x-mas rush doesn't seem to have abated like it did every previous year.

Posted by: Nomen Nescio at March 19, 2009 01:51 PM

The next set of numbers to correlate are the violent crime statistics from 2005 to present.
If fewer guns lead to less crime and more guns lead to more crime, as VPC (aka HCI, aka . . . More aliases than most criminals) insist, then violent crime should be 150% of what it was 10 years ago.

Posted by: Windy Wilson at March 19, 2009 02:35 PM

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